2004 Predictions
Wow, in just 33 hours (give or take), we’ll be starting over with a brand new year. It’s gonna be 2004–hard to believe. I’m a big science fiction fan, so of course I’m a little disappointed that here we are, hanging out in the future sans any of those cool personal jet packs, daily ferries to the moon, and little shark fins on cars (although the VW Jetta has a very sharky looking antenna on top of it).
One thing is for certain, though, the Web is racing into the future just about as fast as it can. Now that all the hype and market focus is looking elsewhere, the family of technologies that comprise the Internet are starting to make a difference for companies of all sizes. Many folks who haven’t been paying attention to what’s been happening will be mightily surprised at the ways we’re saving money, time, energy, and everything else with this peculiar medium.
So here’s my first annual attempt to prognosticate the future–and yes, next December, I’ll revisit some of what I’ve said now to see how right (and wrong) I was.
1. Most of the effort put into the Web during its first 10 years of development focused on publishing information for human consumption. There are millions of web sites out there providing all kinds of information in every conceivable info-niche, but hardly any of it is structured in any way.
This lack of structure makes it very hard for computer processes to communicate with each other–after all, computers don’t have our ability to make wild guesses at what this number or that string of letters means. The next few years will see an increasing focus toward structured documents (such as XML) to make it possible for computers and computing processes to interact more efficiently. We’ve already begun to see this happening with Web Services, and companies all over the world are starting to realize that millions and billions of dollars in savings are possible from such efficiency.
2. Because sharing information was the primary focus of the Web in its early years, a great deal of technology arose to meet that focus–namely, content management systems and tools that made it easier to create Web content. In the coming year, sharing computing resources will start to take on more and more importance. Grid computing, already fairly active in the academic and research worlds, will finally feel the benefits of emerging open standards. Companies of all sizes, and eventually consumers, will have access to affordable supercomputing horsepower. If we can figure out how to monitor it, secure it, and charge for it. In the meantime, there’s still plenty to do with Web Services.
3. If COMDEX 2003 showed me anything, it was that the desktop PC is long gone as the sole viewing platform for Web content. Smart phones–capable of surfing the web, fetching email, and working as a PDA–finally have the right size screens. Tablet PCs–light, ergonomic, and powerful–finally have enough oomph and pen computing smarts to help around the office. My friend Barbary Brunner of Microsoft showed me her SPOT watch (that’s Smart Personal Objects Technology). It’s basically a wristwatch that gets news feeds, stock tickers, weather, and oh yeah, the time from Web sources. In the future, Microsoft is planning on adding lots of other content streams as well.
What do these three trends spell for Web development consultants? For one thing, we’re going to have to design for a lot more viewing platforms besides IE and Netscape. We’ll have to structure more of our content as XML or database content and then transform it into the appropriate formats. And we’re going to have to think beyond the needs of content publishing and examine other ways that Web technologies (such as extranets and Web Services) can save our clients money.
I’m looking forward to 2004–the Web has come a long way in the past 10 years, and finally we’re starting to see the kinds of stable technologies (XML, mobile devices, etc.) that will allow the Web to leap beyond our expectations.



